Saturday, July 16, 2022
Hey there! You did it. I want to take this opportunity to tell you that you are amongst those very few people in the world who know what mental models are and know not one, not two, not three but FIVE mental models. My probabilistic thinking says you might be amongst the 0.05% of the people, a drop from the wide ocean. Congratulations for standing out from the crowd.
What is Occam’s Razor?
The essence of Occam’s Razor is that simpler explanations are more likely to be true than complicated ones. We all jump to overly complex situations about things.
→ Phone is switched off? What if he’s kidnapped?
→ Hair fall? What if I have a stage 4 cancer?
→ No update yet? What if visa is rejected?
Although it is possible that any of those worst case scenarios could be true, it is significantly more likely that the phone’s battery died, hair fall is because of the new conditioner you are using and there’s no update yet because it is still in the process.
We spend time coming up with very complicated narratives to explain what we see around. This is a common human tendency. Occam’s Razor is a great tool for avoiding unnecessary complexity by helping you identify and commit to the simplest explanation possible.
Why are more complicated explanations less likely to be true?
Consider there are two ways to explain a situation. One of them requires the intersection of four variable and the other explanation, the complex one, requires the intersection of forty variable. Considering each variable has a 99% chance of being correct, then the first explanation has an error rate of only 4%. The error rate of the complex situation is much higher as it involves a lot of variables. The simplest explanation is more robust in the face of uncertainty.
What is Hanlon’s Razor?
Consider a road rage incident. When someone cuts you off, to assume that is being done deliberately and cussing the other person means that they have done a lot off risky work. In order for someone to cut you off, they must have noticed you, estimated the speed of your car, consider where you are heading and then cut you exactly at a specific time to cause you to hit the brakes yet not cause an accident. Do you see the effort? Do you think people will be willing to move their lazy ass only to irritate you? The explanation more likely to be right is the one that contains the least amount of intent.
When we something we don’t like happen and which seems wrong to us, we assume it is intentional. But it’s more likely that it’s completely unintentional. Assuming it to be intentional is nothing but a stupid behaviour. Failing to prioritise stupidity over malice causes things like paranoia.
If you start looking at things with intent, trust me the perception changes completely.
I hope you learned something new with every mental model and are improving your decision making skills. If you are reading this paragraph I want to tell you one thing. I want you to ace all your struggles. I want you to have a story worth saying when it’s your turn to tell it. All your failures and learnings should come handy for those who arrive after you. We may not be in talking terms, but I know you’ll win the game. Remember, somebody is always rooting for you.
See you next Saturday, until then have a great weekend :)
Cheers!
A FEW THINGS KEEPING ME AWAKE
Thread: No two lovers have ever loved as they did
Podcast: The Knowledge Podcast - Kunal Shah
Song I am listening to: Arcade
Thought of the week: "I need to listen well so that I hear what is not said."
MEME OF THE WEEK
SARCASTIC REFLECTION
Here are the last three posts if you were too occupied to read them -