Saturday, July 02, 2022
** We have already discussed four important mental models and this one is the fifth mental model in the series. Do check out the previous ones if you haven’t already. **
How do you take a decision?
Chances are you think of the current state you are in, using our last mental model - Though Experiment you imagine the state you would be in after taking some xyz decision, if that future state puts you in a better position, you are likely to take that decision. This is what we call as first order thinking. It’s easy and safe and almost anyone can anticipate the immediate results of their immediate actions. Second-order thinking is thinking farther ahead . It is about thinking the consequences of the consequences of your actions. Let us understand this with a real life examples.
During the colonial rule, British government was worried about the venomous snakes in Delhi because they were growing in number. Hence, the British government at that time passed an order to reward every citizen who would bring a dead snake to the government. The first order thinking says that this would decreases the number of snakes in the region. What do you think happened?
Indian citizens started breeding snakes to slaughter them later for the reward. The situation got worst. This happened because the British officials did not think of the possible second order effects of their order.
However, second-order thinking is not a way to predict future because you are only able to think of the possible consequences based on the information available to you. If we’re interested in understanding how the world really works, we must include second and subsequent effects. Second order thinking is useful to us in prioritising long-term interests over immediate gains and constructing effective arguments.
There’s something also called as the second world problem. Warren Buffett used a very apt metaphor once to describe how the second-order problem is best described by a crowd at a parade: Once a few people decide to stand on their tip-toes, everyone has to stand on their tip-toes. No one can see any better, but they’re all worse off.
Second order thinking is a useful model to think past the immediate gains and work for long term benefit. When you eat a candy, first order effect is the amazing feeling triggered by the sugar. Second order effect is asking if this is how you want your body to look like in 10 years? Like a plum cake full of sugar? Second-order thinking involves asking ourselves if what we are doing now is going to get us the results we want in the long term.
Can you think of any other real life example where the intent was good but because of the ignorance of second order thinking, the good turned into a disaster? Let me know in the comment section below.
See you next Saturday, until then have a great weekend :)
Cheers!
A FEW THINGS KEEPING ME AWAKE
Article: Toys, Secrets & Cycles by Chris Dixon
Podcast: The Knowledge Podcast - Kunal Shah
Song I am listening to: Cold/mess by Prateek Kuhad
Thought of the week: "Those who are easy to offend, attract and retain fake people around them."
MEME OF THE WEEK
SARCASTIC REFLECTION
Here are the last three posts if you were too occupied to read them -