Saturday, January 08, 2022
To set the background before we move ahead - we all know the affect of greenhouse gases, the climate crisis, effect of fossil fuels, need of a shift to renewable sources of energy, goal of ZERO carbon emission. These topics, though seldom make the headlines, but are always in the news and everybody, even with a little sense of awareness, knows about the dire consequences if we don’t start to act now. Let’s discuss about a few mismatches that are emerging out.
#MISMATCH 1 : There is a difference in the future fossil fuel supply and the future fossil fuel demand right now.
One good news is that the world has reduced its investment in producing fossil fuels. And surprisingly, we are on the right path of following the 1.5-degree rise in global temperature, as signed by 195 nations in The Paris Agreement. However, as dubious it may sound, we are still investing as much as ever in cars, cement, plastics and any product that uses fossil fuels. Simply said, our demand for products that use fossil fuel isn’t going down and it still assumes a greater than 1.5 degree pathway. And the problem being, the cement manufacturer, running a profitable business two streets across thinks that he will have abundant fossil fuel supply in the future.
#MISMATCH 2: We are preparing for a ZERO carbon future, but without much preparation on the clean energy side
Even though the investment in fossil fuel supply is going down, we aren’t investing as much on the clean energy side. There is a gap between the clean energy production and fossil fuel reduction. If the trend continues, the demand for fossil fuels is going to sky rocket and less supply means skyrocketing the energy prices.
It is important to note that the fossil fuel investment has been down since 2014 because of the crash of oil prices and has never recovered since then. Global oil-and-gas investment also fell by nearly a quarter last year because of the coronavirus pandemic. Hence to attribute reduced investment in fossil fuel supply entirely because of the climate crisis isn’t a wise move.
Fossil fuel investment maybe in line with the 1.5 degree pathway, but it might rise up SOON. The average Brent crude oil price in 2020 was $42/barrel which jumped to $70/barrel in 2021.[source] Rise in oil prices means the drillers are gonna invest more and drill up more oil.
YES, we are investing heavily in EV’s and clean energy, but according to International Energy Agency (IEA), there is list of behavioural changes that the world must hit in order to zero out carbon pollution by 2050. Some of which include -
Speed limit on highways should be capped to 160 Km/hour by 2030. [P.S. - we are talking about American highways]
Buildings cannot be cooled to less than about 23 degree celsius in the summer nor warmed past 20 degree celsius in the winter.
By 2050, neither business nor long-haul leisure air travel must happen at the rate that it’s happening right now.
In other words, the IEA doesn’t see the world reaching net zero by adopting EVs alone. Its “demand” forecast entails both technological and behavioural change—in the short term, millions of people must drive EVs and highway speeds must be reduced.
We are living in a decade where we, as a specie, need to slowly and gradually change the way we consume energy and the kind of energy we consume. We are definitely doing a lot to reach our goal of ZERO carbon emissions, but it’s just not enough!
See you on next Saturday, until then have a great weekend :)
Cheers!
Some things that you may find interesting-
Article: Rural Ladies Will Rule Bitcoin.
Video clip: This will make you laugh
Podcast: The Joe Rogan Experience - Robert Downey Jr.
Song I am listening to: Tapestry by Bruno Major
Thought of the week: “You can’t save people who choose to self-destruct and who refuse to learn.”
Here are the last three posts if you were too occupied to read them: