#181 What is the Thucydides Trap?
I recently finished reading Destined for War by Graham Allison and it dives into the Thucydides Trap which is when a rising power (China) threatens a ruling one (US), war often follows. The term comes from the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, who wrote about the Peloponnesian War. He observed that it was the rise of Athens and the fear it instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable. In other words, when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling one, the result is often violent conflict. Allison’s team at Harvard studied 16 such power transitions in history and 12 of them ended in war. Only 4 managed to avoid it and even those weren’t exactly peaceful strolls through history.
In today’s world, the rising power is China and the reigning power is The United States. The book lays out how this dynamic is playing out in real time, from military posturing in the South China Sea to trade wars and tariff escalations. What makes the book particularly compelling is that it’s not alarmist, it’s analytical. It doesn’t say war will happen, but that the odds are historically against us avoiding it.
One important learning for me from the book is how the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) doesn’t view power the same way liberal democracies do. In China, the Party is the state. Preserving the CCP’s dominance is non-negotiable, and any outside influence whether it’s tariffs, sanctions, or calls for political reform is seen as a direct attack on the Party’s survival.
So when the U.S. imposes tariffs on Chinese tech or blocks Chinese firms like Huawei, China sees it not as fair competition, but as an existential threat to its model of governance. Unlike Western democracies, which think in election cycles, China thinks in decades, even centuries. The CCP believes that time is on their side, that the U.S. is in relative decline, divided internally and overstretched globally.
From China’s perspective, the West has no moral authority. It was the West that once humiliated China—and now wants to lecture it on trade rules, democracy, and “global norms.”
Surprisingly, many in the West still talk about China as a “rising” power. But Graham Allison points out in the book that in crucial areas, China has already surged ahead. The power shift isn’t coming, it’s here.
According to the IMF and World Bank data cited in the book, China surpassed the U.S. in PPP-adjusted GDP back in 2014. China is now the largest trading partner for over 130 countries — including major U.S. allies like Germany, Japan, and Australia.
It’s the world’s largest manufacturer, exporting everything from steel to solar panels to smartphones.
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has extended its economic influence across Asia, Africa, and Europe, creating a new “Silk Road” of dependencies.
China builds more in a year than the U.S. does in a decade.
It has more high-speed rail than the rest of the world combined.
Its cities are modern, hyper-connected, and still expanding.
The U.S. built a global system. China is now running the cash register.
While still behind the U.S. in total firepower, China is closing the gap fast and strategically:
Its navy is now the world’s largest by number of ships.
It’s investing heavily in hypersonic weapons, space warfare, and cyber capabilities.
It doesn’t need global dominance - just enough strength to control its regional waters and deter U.S. intervention.
The hard truth is, on many metrics, China has already arrived and the competition is not future tense. It’s already here.
So, is war inevitable?
Reading this book didn’t leave me with answers but with a sharper awareness of how fragile peace is, and how much effort it takes to preserve it. In a world full of triggers - tariffs, tech wars, military drills, nationalist rhetoric - staying out of war may turn out to be the hardest victory of all.
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